• Where are people going for safety or hedging at the moment?
    You look at the dollar, it had a great week last week. You look Bitcoin.
    Alexis Christoforous
  • Peter Tchir
    Things that I still like are what we've been calling production for security. So anything that the US needs to produce domestically, they should be buying.
    You look at Intel, Intel had a phenomenal week. That would be in there I think energy companies, rare earths, critical minerals. I think you're going to see some good plays continuing in the nuclear sector. You're seeing the same thing in Europe. You're seeing Nokia do well, BP, Shell. So I think everyone's going, what do countries need to make more of their own, buy those stocks?
  • If the ceasefire holds, you say, hey, look, even if we're able to successfully block the Strait of Hormuz, no big deal?
    Alexis Christoforous
  • Peter Tchir
    I think there's only been three or four ships going through as it is. So if it kind of goes smoothly, no big deal.
    The flip side, the negative side would be if we get China involved somehow... or if Iran goes back after Saudi Arabia's pipeline. So I could see this playing either way. I think that's what we're all sitting there watching is one, what does the military actually do? What does this blockade look like?
  • I think you bring up an excellent point with China because I think the one country here that could get really hurt is China, because how would they get their oil? It's heavily dependent on Iran.
    Alexis Christoforous
  • Peter Tchir
    Right. So now China, though, did stockpile, I think, a billion barrels of oil there. I'm sure they're depleting some of that. So they've got some wiggle room there.
    The other thing that we don't know is how much economic pressure this really puts on Iran. Clearly, it puts economic pressure, but do they have one months of savings, three months of savings, six months of savings? Have they struck deals? I think it's not going to work as well economically as the administration.
  • Mag seven makes up 40% of earnings growth, the growth minutes of earnings two years ago. Now they may be make up 20 some percent. Is that diminishing or are we going to have a mix seven earnings growth this time around?
    Alexis Christoforous
  • Peter Tchir
    You know, I think the Mag seven encompasses some companies that aren't necessarily part of the story the way they once were.
    Right. You're seeing software kind of get hit. You saw a mythos came out, you know, the anthropic latest release and everyone's talking about that it dropped not just the IGB, which is a software ETF, but cyber cyber, which is a cyber ETF. So you saw that and yet the chip stocks are doing really well. So maybe this is just telling you if AI gets good fast, they're going to need more chips. We're going to need more data centers, AI processing, and it's going to diffuse.
  • Who benefits, though? Is there a broadening of the market in the April bank earnings, tech earnings, everybody else after that? Is there a legitimate broadening?
    Alexis Christoforous
  • Peter Tchir
    There should be. I think we might finally be hitting the stage where the benefits of AI don't just accrue to a few companies, they accrue to the companies that are using them.
  • I'm glad we brought up AI because I want to talk about AI and how it relates to the banks. I mean, I think we all know trading volume was probably off the charts because of what's happening with the war. So the banks made a lot of big money there. But are we going to find out AI's impact on the banks during this earnings season, do you think?
    Alexis Christoforous
  • Peter Tchir
    Might be early? But again, I think you're going to see some positive message in that they're getting some benefit, some efficiencies from this.
    I think the next wave too will be probably a little bit early, but you're going to see, I think, a lot more M&A activity, more IPO activity, that pickup in around this space. Again, also I think in and around the new military, as you start thinking about there's going to be a push for drones domestically, globally. Right. I think that's one thing that comes out of that. So I think there's going to be a lot of opportunity for some interesting private equity deals to get done, some IPOs, some M&A activity. So I'm excited on that prospect.
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