Will President Trump get what he wants? Are we going to see this re-acceleration? What kind of outcome are we going to see in the United States this year?
Guy
Sri Kajagovadam
We're seeing a stabilization of the labor market rather than a re-acceleration. We're not looking for a recession in the US, but I think it's going to be an uneven path.
Sri Kajagovadam
The Fed is likely on pause now until the next chair takes over, and then we think another couple of 25 basis point cuts in the second half of the year.
Can I ask you about the UK? We have data out this morning. It's quite a bit better. What's your broad picture for the growth story?
Anna
Sri Kajagovadam
Overall the three-month picture is looking close to flat. It's not a recession but stabilization of growth. The labor market deteriorated through last year.
Would that suggest the BOE is currently behind the curve? Do they cut in March?
Tom
Sri Kajagovadam
I think they have to go according to a slow, gradual pace. So I think March is likely in terms of a cut.