Current view is realistic, not sober. Baseline is record 2025 M&A, but world faces uncertainty and volatility. Two flagged risks: geopolitical and AI disruption. Both are mispriced.

Long-term secular view: M&A activity should increase as world speeds up, forcing CEOs/boards to adapt, pair portfolios, focus on core competencies, onshore, control supply chains (vertical integration), and consolidate for scale to afford AI investments. Long-term bull.

Tail risks and unintended consequences from hostilities (energy choke points, ripple effects on consumer/ecosystem) make it hard to know where things settle. Underlying need to transact is strong; it's a matter of time.

Using AI as a tool to make best bankers more productive and give better advice, not to shrink workforce. Starting with senior bankers for greatest uplift. Moving cautiously due to rapid change.

Administration is pro-growth, cutting regulation (e.g., 400 early HSR terminations vs. 6-7 in 2024). However, horizontal consolidation that risks consumer price increases may be a 'no-fly zone' due to affordability focus.