Acknowledges and takes note of Treasury Secretary Yellen's recent 'wait and see' comments and her mention of timing for the next Fed Chair to kick off rate easing cycle.

Agrees Fed should wait and see for two reasons: 1) Inflation is moving in the wrong direction, 2) Uncertainty about persistence of the oil shock.

Provides historical context: Most oil shocks in last 50 years mean-revert (prices go up then come down quickly). Even persistent shocks like 2010-12 had direct inflation effects within a year. Current Middle East hostilities create more than usual uncertainty about duration.

Notes there's a group (at least 7 of 19) on Fed committee who think policy rate is close to done, but majority as of March still saw couple more rate cuts appropriate eventually, though in no rush this year.

Private credit is broad asset class; direct lending to middle market has grown rapidly but not stress-tested. Asset-backed lending has tangible collateral. Important to take granular perspective.

Fed's primary focus is ensuring it understands banking system exposure to private credit, which based on public information appears modest relative to bank balance sheets.

Clarifies he's no longer official and hasn't seen detailed data, but exposure doesn't appear to be a concern right now.