Asks if he's surprised markets are so sanguine about geopolitical disruption.
Lisa Abramowicz
Jamie Dimon
Not really. Markets react to wars but they rarely have a long-term effect, except for the 1973 oil crisis.
Asks about market reaction if there's a stagflationary shock.
Lisa Abramowicz
Jamie Dimon
Asset prices are high, credit spreads are low, there's a lot of complacency. Inflation is the 'skunk at the party.' It's leveled off around 3%.
Asks how vulnerable the US economy is to a geopolitical shock.
Lisa Abramowicz
Jamie Dimon
The most important thing is geopolitics and the defense of the Western democratic world. Global deficits are large 'moving tectonic plates.'
Asks what will cause the next credit cycle and what it will look like.
Lisa Abramowicz
Jamie Dimon
There will be a credit cycle, usually caused by a recession. Stagflation is different than a normal recession. The cycle will be worse than people expect.
Asks if private credit is the epicenter of risk.
Lisa Abramowicz
Jamie Dimon
No. Corporate and consumer debt are in good shape. Private credit, leverage lending, high-yield are each about $1.7 trillion—not systemic even if worse than expected.
Asks about AI investment and job displacement concerns.
Lisa Abramowicz
Jamie Dimon
AI is used for risk, fraud, marketing, underwriting. It will make things faster, cheaper, better. For society, it will cure diseases, make food and cars safer.
Asks if he's negative given recent gloomy mood.
Lisa Abramowicz
Jamie Dimon
I look at the system. There's big geopolitical risk, sovereign debt risk. Inflation is not beaten yet. I'm concerned. Probabilities of something going south are more than people think.
Asks if the bigger risk is inflation or an economic downturn.
Lisa Abramowicz
Jamie Dimon
Inflation could cause the downturn. Recessions are usually a confluence of events hard to see in real-time.