No. In line with one cut. January inflation noisy with seasonality. Jobs show underlying strength/troughing in labor market pointing to needing less cuts. Today's action may be overreaction to one month data.

Jobs data skewed to healthcare with seasonality. Revisions possible. January data has lots of seasonality especially in core services CPI. Hard to make big judgment call off January data.

Not seeing outflows from US but pickup into ex-US flows to Europe, Japan, EM. Dollar question interesting: fundamentals/rate differentials point to firmer dollar. Saw disconnect after liberation day - dollar weaker than models expected, then returned. Question: fundamental shift in global allocation or will dollar return to fundamentals pointing to rangebound/firmer dollar.

World has shortage of safe haven assets. China Q4 shows record current account surpluses in East Asia. That surplus has to be recycled somewhere unless they want currencies to appreciate (they don't). Creates bid for Treasuries despite fiscal deficit concerns.

Some is signaling. Official holdings on decline but Treasury holdings in other official institutions/state banks steady or increasing. Haven't shied away from Treasuries as much as headlines suggest.

No. Some categories haven't seen full pass-through. Pass-through different from 2017-18 trade war - absorbed across channel (exporters, corporate margins, then consumer). Think most categories passed through to consumer by year-end. Some delay but won't upset inflation view overall.

Not something we spend lot of time worrying about. Hard to know if cutbacks affected BLS specifically.