Asks for WTI and Brent average price forecast for the new year and why prices might stay flat.
speaker1
Francisco Blanch
Forecasts Brent $64, WTI $57 average for next year. Prices likely weaker in first half, may improve in second half.
Francisco Blanch
Doesn't see a crash. Chinese strategic inventory buying will absorb surplus, and OPEC is slowing supply additions to avoid pressuring prices much lower.
Questions equilibrium: 3.3% global GDP growth forecast vs. only 1 million barrels/day demand increase. Asks if that's normal.
speaker1
Francisco Blanch
3.3% GDP not super strong, similar to this year (~3.4%). Global inflation sticky around 2.4%, US ~2.33%. 1 million b/d demand is base case unless growth surprises.
Asks about gold outlook and if improving trade relations change the tailwind from Chinese central bank buying.
speaker1
Francisco Blanch
Could change on margin, but China still accumulating foreign exchange (record trade surplus) and devoting chunk to gold.
Francisco Blanch
Remains bullish on gold with $5000 target. Investors will keep buying in fractured geopolitical environment with large deficits and more monetary easing.