Current cycle isn't systemic like 2008, but similarities exist: banks lending to private equity/capital firms, just as they did to mortgage companies pre-2008. Risk is when Wall Street sees credit turn, they'll pull credit lines, liquidity dries up, exposing leverage.

Believes the headwind that could send markets into correction is employment/unemployment. Earnings have been strong, market broadening is healthy, but starting to see trends in employment.

If retail investor wants exposure, buy Blackstone, KKR, Apollo - the parent companies with permanent capital and fee streams. Would not put private credit funds in 401k.

Uses prediction markets to follow news (e.g., Brazil election). Trades on them for entertainment/signals (e.g., will S&P close below 7800, will gold outperform Bitcoin).

Things are okay because Fed keeps bailing us out - moral hazard. Believes if private credit goes, Fed will have no choice but to bail it out.

If Fed cuts in face of inflation, yields will move higher on longer end. Inflation has stopped going down, oil moving higher - questions Fed's ability to cut.

Economy is fine, but need to watch employment carefully. AI memo spooking people about white-collar jobs.

Public companies' job is margin expansion - if they see opportunity via AI tools, they'll do it. AI secular trade is real, will make companies more efficient.

Always have sector overreactions that create opportunity. Focus not just on tech - energy stocks cheap if oil stays at $65.

Gold and gold miners. Gold is $35T asset, play on geopolitics, debasement, inflation, central bank incompetence. If way out is bailing out private credit, gold prices that in.

Today's bounce is false - US dollar rebounded on belief US is ultimate power, but it's short-lived. Forgot about AI trade, UK MFS blowing up.

Very concerned about US debt and debt-to-GDP. If start issuing more T-bills instead of 10-year, creates refinancing/repricing risk down road.

ETF flows remain positive, but it comes down to employment. If people lose jobs, they stop monthly 401k contributions - that's the risk.