This is a market that really wants to go up. We are less than 2% away from all-time highs on the S&P 500 in the middle of a war.

Blockade is positive development. Points of agreement between Iran and US closer than expected. If ships go through and Iran fires missiles, that breaks ceasefire and leads back to bombing. If deal: all-time highs. If bombing again: some sinking back. Question is how many missiles Iran has left and how much more pain they can inflict.

Tail risks are Iran. If Iran bombs ships and inflicts major damage on ports and oil facilities, oil goes to $150 and markets go back to March lows (worst case tail). Good tail: Trump says we have a deal, markets go to all-time highs.

Earnings are first quarter, part of March was with rising oil prices. Most interesting is CEO forecasts given rising oil price. If oil stays around $425 region, extra money consumers pay is not as much as stimulus provided or defense department purchases. Strong economy ongoing.