Asks about client mood and whether worst in energy prices is over.
Speaker3
Adrian Zurcher
Clients relatively calm. Not experts on politics, but key transmission is oil price: every $10 takes 0.2% off global GDP, impacts US consumer. Longer conflict = more negative impact.
Asks about navigating crowded trades (Korea, gold, AI).
Speaker3
Adrian Zurcher
Even before crisis, expected equity broadening, downgraded US tech/consumer/AI-related telecom. Gold trade crowded, not reacting as expected. Trimming winners, adding hedges for stronger USD, adding high-yielding EM commodity exporter currencies.
Asks about fixed income view given inflationary oil shock.
Speaker3
Adrian Zurcher
Inflation will go up (60-150 bps depending on oil price persistence), but higher energy prices will affect growth. Fed with dual mandate could look through inflation and eventually cut rates if growth concerns mount. Europe more limited. Creates opportunities in fixed income.
Asks if dollar stays supported near term.
Speaker2
Adrian Zurcher
Dollar most likely supported near term. Example trade: long Brazilian real (commodity exporter, risk-on) vs short euro (hurt by high energy prices), clipping 10% carry.