Material pullback on goods spending. Control group sales down 0.1% month on month in December. Consumer landscape is weaker than we expected.

This is the landscape we're going to be living with through 2026. Consensus forecast for real personal spending growth at 2% year on year seems exceptionally high.

We're going to see job growth on the order of 10 to 20,000 per month throughout the course of the year. It's going to be a relatively weak labor market.