Asks if we are in a structurally higher oil price regime.
Shery
Daan Struyven
Yes. Forecasts Brent at $80 by year-end, up from $60s pre-war. Largest oil supply shock ever leads to two structural changes: faster strategic stockpiling by governments and a security premium priced into longer-dated prices.
Notes supply shock not fully spread to West; Asia feeling it. Asks if things get worse.
Shery
Daan Struyven
Absolutely. Explains large gap between high Dubai prices for Asia and lower Western benchmarks. If shock lasts, extreme tightness in Middle East/Asia will spread to rest of world as high prices incentivize shipping from US to Asia.
Asks upside risks to forecast and if Trump rhetoric changes assessment.
Haidi
Daan Struyven
Risks are two-sided in short term. Short-term prices reflect risk premium. The probability of a lengthy disruption or persistent damage has come down somewhat, explaining the ~12% selloff in Brent.
Asks if high prices motivate more US shale.
Haidi
Daan Struyven
Modest response expected (~300-400k bpd extra), small compared to ~18 mbpd hit to Persian Gulf exports. Policy cannot fully offset extremely large shock. If shock lasts, demand destruction via higher prices will be required to rebalance.
Notes demand destruction in other commodities like base metals.
Shery
Daan Struyven
Yes, seeing pockets of demand destruction in LNG markets and oil (airlines cutting flights 5%, jet prices >$200/bbl). Impact depends on duration of disruption.