• Asks if ceasefires could lead to an increase in Israel's growth forecast, which was recently downgraded.
    Lisa Abramowicz
  • Amir Yaron
    Confirms growth was projected down from 5.2% to 3.8% for 2026, assuming conflict lasts until end of April. If fighting stops, they would 'upgrade that 3.8 slightly.' Predicts a bounce back to ~5.5% in 2027.
    Cites the Israeli economy's great resiliency over the past 2.5 years.
  • Asks for the source of weaker growth: tourism, investment, or the strong shekel?
    Lisa Abramowicz
  • Amir Yaron
    Immediate GDP impact from missiles closing education systems (parents stay home) and reduced activity. In Lebanon, 'boots on the ground' means more reserves duty, impacting GDP.
  • Asks the central bank's role in supporting growth when the shock is geopolitical and not tied to interest rates.
    Lisa Abramowicz
  • Amir Yaron
    Primary role is ensuring financial stability, which they have done. Markets are taking a 'very positive view' on Israel despite events.
    Notes they also act as economic advisors to the government, advocating for fiscal consolidation to manage debt-to-GDP.
  • Asks how the recently passed budget with a >5% deficit ties the central bank's hands.
    Lisa Abramowicz
  • Amir Yaron
    Projects inflation to be in low 2s by end of 2026/early 2027 if conflict ends by April, signaling potential for 'another one, two cuts.' The big issue is getting debt back on a downward trajectory.
    Says better geopolitical outcomes allow more flexibility to spend on security and growth engines while lowering debt.
  • Asks about FX intervention given the strong shekel and inflation below target.
    Lisa Abramowicz
  • Amir Yaron
    FX is a tool used primarily to support monetary policy or financial stability, not particular sectors. Gives examples: sold reserves for stability at war's start, bought reserves during COVID for monetary policy.
  • Asks if central bank independence is under more threat now due to high deficits.
    Lisa Abramowicz
  • Amir Yaron
    Central bank independence is key for success. It allows inflation to be brought down efficiently and with less cost, which helps the weak segments of society.
    Acknowledges fiscal dominance is a threat but says there is understanding in many corridors about the importance of independence.
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