Fed's focus on tariffs is discordant given the PPI showing cost pressures and the overwhelming situation in the Persian Gulf.

The updated Dot Plot leaned towards concern about inflation, was less instinctively accommodative, and offers potential for the Fed to remain on hold longer.

The real problem is gas facilities like LNG; damage to Qatar's refinery affects ~20% of global LNG supply with no strategic reserves, causing economic damage and cost pressure increases globally, especially in Asia.