The war is not over yet. The good signs led to a big sell-off yesterday (~10% drop in Brent). Iranian denials could be posturing as both sides jockey for a deal.

Gulf language has gotten stronger because they don't want an interim agreement that leaves a more emboldened Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is closed.

The oil price is looking at the possibility of a protracted closure. Goldman Sachs commented that a longer closure would lead to even higher prices down the road.

The longer this takes, the more attacks on critical infrastructure, the longer oil and global economies take to recover. The only real resolution is to get the Strait of Hormuz open.