Over the weekend we've seen signs of the war escalating. We see the strikes on Kharg Island. We have heard calls for de-escalation but they have no details. For now, what we're seeing in oil prices is the reflection of that risk. We do see signs of this war not having a clear off-ramp as of now.

We definitely see India and China as the biggest importers of Middle Eastern oil being the most exposed to the risk from this war. Already we see Asian consumers having to pay higher prices at the petrol pump. A lot of these consumers are feeling the bite from the lack of oil that's coming from the Middle East right now.

We see Russian oil as being used as a buffer. We have seen the Trump administration allowing carve-outs for sanctioned Russian oil to flow to Asian consumers, mostly to India. The longer this war drags on, we may potentially see more waivers from sanctions from the Trump administration. One thing's clear for now is that Russia has become one of the biggest winners from this war.