Introducing CPM Group's 40th annual gold yearbook, providing supply/demand estimates for 2025 and projections for 2026.

Gold price rose sharply from 2019, reaching $5,500 intraday in early 2026 before correcting to ~$4,100 due to Dubai airport closure interrupting Middle East/India flows, Fed holding rates, and profit-taking.

We are 26 years into a new world of greater investment demand; investors have bought more gold since 2001 than in millennia prior due to long-term concerns about political, economic, financial, and social cohesion.

Expect gold price to plateau for a few months mid-year, could fall to $3,500 but likely consolidates above $3,800-$4,000, then continues higher as economic/political problems remain.

US/Iran war has near-term disruption to gold flows but longer-term accelerates deterioration of international cooperation, increases hostilities/terrorism - bad for world but good for gold.

Gold and silver have been top performing asset classes in 4 of last 5 years; gold rose 65%, silver 144% last year.

Net gold investment demand hit record 55.2M oz in 2025, projected to reach 63.5M oz in 2026, supporting historically elevated prices and potential new highs.

Political risk, US hostilities, de-globalization, inflation uncertainty, AI disruption risks, K-shaped economy, declining confidence in policymakers all support gold investment demand.

Central banks were net buyers of 10.2M oz in 2025; expected to buy ~10M oz in 2026. Their ongoing purchases encourage investor buying.

Gold now accounts for ~25% of global central bank monetary reserves, similar to 1994 levels. Dollar share of forex reserves at lowest since 1994 but unlikely below 50%.

Total supply reached record 134.2M oz in 2025, driven by scrap; mine supply declined. 2026 supply expected at similar level with both mine and scrap rising.

Gold fabrication demand plummeted to 68.8M oz (lowest since 1990) due to high/rising prices, weak currencies in India/Turkey, and China's VAT changes.

War end would reduce gold price pressure; Russia's gold buying/selling for war financing would stabilize, reducing flows to market.

Some central banks selling small amounts of gold in early 2026 for forex needs, but most would rather sell currencies than gold due to transaction costs and psychological preference.

US Treasury resetting gold price higher is nonsensical; would collapse with first transaction and explode government debt.

Current gold decline is profit-taking from $5,500 highs and Dubai flow disruption, not major liquidity event. US may not be in recession yet, just slower growth.

States aren't buying much gold; some legislation allows gold for transactions but can't force acceptance. Some pension fund diversification makes sense, but mixed with anti-federal MAGA sentiment.

1970s-style stagflation (high inflation + low growth) very good for gold unless rates rise sharply like Volcker did. Modern stagflation would be different; central banks now more efficient.

Gold miners can and do decouple from gold price frequently; currently lagging despite high profitability ($4,300 vs $1,700 all-in costs).

Not much producer hedging currently, but inquiries increasing. Many treasurers avoid hedging to avoid career risk if wrong. CPM doing more hedging work with investors/fabricators.

Gold prices to stay above $3,800-$4,000 rest of year and next couple years. May move sideways to higher next year, possibly above $4,500 monthly average. Longer-term could reach cyclical peak in 2-3 years but secular bull market continues.