How widespread is the fragility in fuel markets? Countries scaling back usage, looking to US for helium.
Vonnie Quinn
Emma Ross Thomas
Refined products under most stress. Europe could see diesel shortages in coming weeks; jet fuel okay for April but issues possible in May.
Panic measures seen in Asia: queues, rationing, stockpiling.
Will effects be delayed like with Russia-Ukraine war?
Vonnie Quinn
Emma Ross Thomas
Duration is key. Market freaking out because Trump comments left it open-ended. Longer it goes, more the stress.
Scale of supply loss is huge. Just over a month now.
Is the next deadline for Iran to meet demands the key date?
Vonnie Quinn
Emma Ross Thomas
Market focused on latest Trump guidance. Two risks: Strait of Hormuz closure and risk to energy assets. Trump said oil assets would be easiest target.
Iran still exporting oil - a key buffer. If Iranian assets hit, another jolt to market. Rhetoric points toward more damage to energy assets.
$10 oil swing - was market overpricing or underpricing risk?
Vonnie Quinn
Emma Ross Thomas
Less certainty on duration. Two factors: scale of disruption and how long it lasts. 2-3 week idea taken back seat.
Even if war ends tomorrow, damage done: Qatar LNG may take 5 years to restore. Question if pre-war normality returns. Iran enacting 'tollbooth' controls.