Markets show FOMO; negative correlation between energy and stocks has waned. Traders were over-hedged. Constraints exist on all sides (US politics, Iran's economy) that could keep a deal in view, but unexpected flare-ups can happen.

Markets remain nervous and prone to volatility.

Energy price normalization will take several months minimum for oil, several years for LNG due to Qatar damage. Physical delivery is constrained, not reflected in futures. Using scenario approach: moderate case (Q2 normalization) and adverse case (H2 disruption) are most likely. Severe case (no normalization this year, potential recession) has lessened but not zero.

Longer elevated prices increase chance of negative economic results.

Europe and Asia are most vulnerable as big Middle East energy importers; their stocks could continue to struggle. Global earnings estimates have increased despite war, but revisions may come after management commentary during earnings season.

If earnings are revised down, stocks could appear more expensive.

AI will continue as a trend. Insatiable power demand creates longer-term theme; likes industrials and electrical grid investment. These companies aren't immune to slowdown but offer longer-term opportunity.