If this is true, then this is very surprising. You would expect the big falls in oil prices to continue.

I did a column about a week ago saying the likelihood of Iran going along with a deal like this was minimal.

If they really agree to a ceasefire and are allowing the traffic to flow through the Strait of Hormuz for the next two weeks, then they are completely releasing their economic leverage for two weeks.

This is the Ayatollahs chickening out.

You can compare the expectations as I perceive them to be from the market: oil comes down a lot and equities will boom.

If this all stands up, I'll sing much cheaper oil, much higher equities in the next 24 hours.

I have to admit I'm very surprised by this, but it would appear to be true.

If Iran is doing this, that's what really matters. They're the ones with agency. If they are releasing their hold on Hormuz even for two weeks, that's a huge deal.

The lesson from previous geopolitical shocks is that they tend to create buying opportunities.

The Yom Kippur War was the last time an incident like this created a true bear market and a recession. That is why you haven't had as big a correction in equities as you might expect.

The degree of scarring to supply chains, given that this has gone on for five weeks already, is probably underappreciated by the markets.

If this really is a true ceasefire involving both sides, involving an open strait for two weeks, you can only imagine that this will be more like Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait in 1990-91.

Where you saw a 20% sell-off that was completely reversed by the time Saddam had been booted out of Kuwait six, seven months later. It's very unusual for a shock to have that neat a starting and end point. I would imagine that will be the model for what happens this time.