Market wisdom at a glance * SignalTube

Introduces interview with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent from Paris, addressing reports that President Trump may delay meeting with Xi Jinping due to war and China's role in Strait of Hormuz shipping.

Brian Sullivan

Scott Bessent

Calls reports of a delayed China summit due to demands for China to police the Strait of Hormuz 'completely false.' States any rescheduling would be for logistics, as the President wants to remain in DC to coordinate war effort.

Pivots to core issue: war, oil price, Strait of Hormuz, and shipping blockade. Notes Bessent said the U.S. is allowing Iranian ships through and suggests there may be a bigger daily oil shortage than the market thinks.

Brian Sullivan

Scott Bessent

Estimates the oil deficit is about 10 or 14 million barrels per day before any ships come out of the straits. Details supply sources: Russian oil (9-12 days of supply), Iranian oil in water (~140M barrels), Saudi stored supplies, and the largest-ever global SPR release (400M barrels).

Contextualizes Bessent's 10-14M barrel deficit estimate, noting his background as a successful hedge fund manager with experience in Riyadh, and states the market impact depends on duration of the deficit.

Brian Sullivan