Market wisdom at a glance * SignalTube

Introduces Phil Streel of Blue Line Futures as a commodities expert and notes it's a risk-on day with metals making new highs.

Host

Phil Streel

Confirms a risk-on day. Mentions gold, silver, and copper made new highs after a trading halt, dismissing conspiracy theories about the halt.

Asks for the potential for gold futures, referencing a 5600 price target.

Host

Phil Streel

Gold looks very strong technically. Cites banks like JP Morgan and Bank of America revising price targets higher (e.g., $6000). Drivers include uncertainty over US tariffs, Middle East friction, central bank buying, and its role as a portfolio diversifier.

Questions if gold's increased implied volatility changes its traditional role in a portfolio.

Host

Phil Streel

Gold should not exceed 10% of a portfolio due to volatility. Notes the daily average true range is ~$180. Advises treating it as a diversifier with small positions, beneficial for dollar-cost averaging. Warns gold volatility at 35; over 40 preceded a sharp fall. Silver volatility is at 86-87, indicating potential for large, uncharacteristic moves.

Suggests the market now has more appetite for volatility, comparing gold to Bitcoin and zero-DTE options.

Host

Phil Streel

Agrees, noting new products and platforms allow betting on various assets, causing big gyrations when large bets are placed.

Asks for a quick thought on silver, suggesting a target of 120 for SI futures.

Host

Phil Streel

Outlines a technical path for silver: from a breakout at 50 to 82.67, a consolidation, then an extension to 115-120. Notes persistent ETF outflows except for a recent Chinese purchase, indicating fund managers are wary of the volatility. The high average true range ($8-$12/day) makes physical buyers hesitant.

Asks for thoughts on Bitcoin, noting it's in a range but might have appetite if stocks break out.

Host

Phil Streel

Bearish on Bitcoin. It needs to get above key levels. Down 25% YTD, 50% below ATHs, needs a 100% move to recover. 45% of coins are underwater. Institutional adoption is fading with weeks of ETF outflows. It peaked on Jan 29th, coinciding with gold/silver highs before their 'rugpull'. Needs a brand new bull case.

Suggests Bitcoin's bull case might just be reclaiming its risk-on properties, encouraged by today's rally.

Host

Phil Streel

Today's 7% move is just volatile upside. A miss in earnings or a spike in the VIX could send it back down to 50,000. Use such moves to rightsize positions according to allocation models.

Asks for thoughts on the 10-year yield, which is in a sideways triangle, finding support at 4%. He thought yields would go up a month ago and was wrong.

Host

Phil Streel

The yield curve was steepening dramatically but started flattening. This signals the US growth story is fading and inflation is becoming stickier, leading to a stagflation-type environment. The Fed is handcuffed. Market pricing shows a 2% chance of a March cut, 50/50 for July, and 100% priced in only by September.