Asking about scenarios for US military deployment in Middle East and likelihood of strike.
Annabelle
James Jeffrey
Trump wants a real nuclear deal with Iran, better than 2015 agreement, and is willing to use military force. He has shown capability with strikes on Soleimani and nuclear sites.
Asking probability of strike in next 2-3 days.
David
James Jeffrey
Strike possible soon; Trump pressed Iran last June and struck days later. Iran may think they can wait out election season, but Trump will press for quick concessions or strike.
James Jeffrey
Oil market danger: if US doesn't target oil exports directly, Iran unlikely to close Strait of Hormuz because it would infuriate China. But if US takes out export infrastructure, Iran has nothing to lose, causing huge oil supply shock.
Asking Iran's motivation to deal with Trump given credible threat.
David
James Jeffrey
Iran's regime survival is key; they believe taking US military hits is less threat than yielding to Washington and looking weak to population that could rise up again.
Asking where negotiation movement most likely given 15-day deadline.
Annabelle
James Jeffrey
Enrichment is key issue; Trump wants to lock in permanent solution to end cycle of violence in Middle East. If Iran's nuclear capability doesn't go away, he'll use military force.
Asking how this fits broader US strategy in Middle East and competition with China.
David
James Jeffrey
Trump engaging to prevent chaos that weakens America. National Security Strategy aims to prevent any power dominating Eurasia. This also signals to China about US willingness to use force, deterring action against Taiwan.