Highlights the critical difference between the Bab el-Mandeb disruption (which had rerouting options) and the Strait of Hormuz closure, which lacks clear alternatives, making reopening difficult due to Iran's capabilities and shipper caution.

Agrees that the conflict will fundamentally transform commodity markets, accelerating the shift from 'just-in-time' to 'just-in-case' inventory accumulation, similar to China's strategy, providing long-term support to commodity prices.

Warns that without an end to the conflict, recession risks grow weekly into April, and if unresolved by May, Brent could spike to $160/barrel and potentially break $200/barrel, with Europe and Northeast Asia most exposed.