Gold is trading at $4,900, the higher end of our ultra-short-term range. Silver is at $82.74.

I want to talk about what an investor who wants to stay long but is concerned prices have risen too far too fast and are vulnerable to downside can do.

Gold prices have risen sharply. There is clearly an upward trend on an ultra-short-term basis following the spike down to $4,100 in late March.

The market is not certain where it goes next. There's a lot of uncertainty about the US/Israeli attack on Iran, economic consequences of war, weakening economic activity, persistent inflation, and expectations about future interest rate declines.

CPM Group has been teetering between seeing a price plateau between $4,400 and $5,200 over the next six months, a sideways consolidation period at a higher level, or continued price increases driven by investment demand.

We've seen prices rise very sharply since last August. We could see prices move sideways the way they did from April through August last year.

Regardless of what happens in Q2/Q3, we're expecting stronger prices later because we don't see economic/political conditions improving and we will be going into US congressional elections.

Our expectation is still higher prices but we're not quite sure what's going to happen in the near term over the next 3-5 months.

Silver has been a bit weaker with greater resistance to higher prices from investors.

There's been an increase in bad data and misinformation in the gold market regarding Turkish central bank selling/swapping, French central bank swaps, rumors of Chinese central bank buying, and Russian selling.

Platinum prices have also risen with continued bullishness, looking to consolidate above $1,000-$1,200 over the next several months.

The price started rising as investors poured in after a promotional report claimed massive deficits last May.

Palladium is also looking more bullish and could outperform platinum over this decade, potentially rising sharply between now and 2028-2030.

Gold has basically been trading between $4,100 and $4,900 since February. There are long-term investors questioning if prices above $4,000 are sustainable.

We saw a surge of non-traditional gold investors in Dec/Jan, they came out in Feb, back in March, out in late March, and back in early April.

I don't want to sell my gold and silver because the state of the world is very unsettled and dangerous - more risky now than ever since WWII.

What can you do to protect yourself? You can stay long, lend gold out (90-day lease rates at 3.9%), or hedge by buying put options or compound options.

An investor could buy a put giving the right to sell gold at $4,000 between now and end of September for $56/oz (1.2% of price). You don't need the price to fall below $4,000 to make money on the hedge.

If price falls to $4,200, a $4,000 put will be more valuable than at $4,800-$4,900.

Alternatively, spend 2.7% for a $4,400 strike put (more likely to be hit over next 6 months), or use compound options with floors at $4,000 or $4,400.