• Let's bring in David Costin, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs. He's bullish on stocks with an S&P 500 year and target of 6800. David will broaden out to some of those consumer comments in a moment, but we have to first start with the elephant in the room. You are bullish on stocks. but we've already surpassed 6800. Are you looking at raising your price target for this year end?
    speaker1
  • David Kostin
    I think you really have to start. First is, look at it earnings. What's happened? to the results so far for US corporate. companies reporting with looking expectations. was around 6%. year of year growth is coming at 8% for the full year. The market is looking pretty strong in terms of the profit growth and that's really been the story and the trajectory. of the index, the broader index, has been following the path of learnings. We're expecting our needs to grow into 2026. The expectation is that the Fed is like it would be cutting both this week and then December and then twice next year So that's four Fed cuts and that's generally speaking been a Tailwind for stocks when the Fed is in an easing mode as long as we don't go into a session That's not part of our forecast meaning that we're expecting the economy to grow Fed's using and you have a environment where corporate earnings and guidance continues to be pretty robust So I think those are the building blocks We look out Year-time roughly 72 hundred is a target that we published and I think the backdrop remains pretty solid for equities in that in that in that context
  • So, okay, so your target is 7200 for a year out next year. in October, November. I'm... What about earnings growth for 2026? Because you just said you're expecting now 8% for 2025. And is that a little bit of a slowdown? And does that slowdown continue in terms of earnings growth in the next year?
    speaker1
  • David Kostin
    Well, not just the clarify, so the first half of the year earnings were up 12% year of year. Expectation on consensus was around 6% for this quarter. and the coming coming in roughly 8% so we're getting a positive surprise that's been pretty consistent in the last sort of 8 quarters, last couple of years, roughly 4 percentage points positive surprises versus expectations. And we look out this year. You know, it's an extra probably 7% is our baseline number and probably the risk to the, to that forecast is probably to the upside as opposed to the downside. And the issue to think about is companies are really ramping up their capex. And so we look at the capital spending growth year of a year is going to be this year looking into next year for 2026, we greater than the amount of capital they're directing towards buybacks. And I think that's indicative of the fact that a lot of corporate management are pretty optimistic around their fundamental business, the potential for AI and adoptions that they are trying to do in different areas of their, of the business practices. Then those are generally speaking, that's some of the reasons why from an earnings perspective companies elected they continue to grow their profits. And over time, that has been the driver of equity prices. Ernie, he's drive stocks over time and that's pretty, pretty optimistic. Now last week, we had Goldman Sachs event in California. We had 100 members of the venture capital and private equity community. A lot of those businesses, of course, really those professionals very optimistic about the fundamentals. And also looking at what's happening in the IPO market. We've had a pretty robust IPO market thus far this year about 50 transactions. And that's what deals up nearly 30% on the first day trading. So it's done pretty well. Obviously, with the shutdown of the government, a lot of that is put on hold for some of the transactions coming up. But the idea of capital still coming to the equity market, our sentiment indicator still, in terms of positioning of market participants, still on a relatively muted level. So there's still potential capacity for purchasing there. So there's some of the drivers, both on an earnings perspective on a capital flow perspective that would make us pretty optimistic with respect to the trajectory of equity.
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