How does jobs report set up positioning for inflation data?
Scarlett Foo
Blake Quinn
Hard for inflation data to change near-term Fed cuts dynamics. Fed focused on labor markets, not inflation side of mandate.
Blake Quinn
Changed Fed call - now have Fed on hold for rest of year. January cut would have needed softness continuing into December print.
How are investors positioning for first part of 2026?
Scarlett Foo
Blake Quinn
Positioning fairly light, people staying close to benchmarks, hesitant to take risk.
Blake Quinn
One prevalent position: people still like curve steepeners for dual risks - insurance against bigger downturn or scare about Fed independence/deficit levels.
How do you fold in Trump's mortgage bond policy?
Scarlett Foo
Blake Quinn
Actual impact on mortgage rates probably low, would take under on 25 basis points. Not game-changing for home ownership decisions.
Is there still foreign haven demand for US Treasuries or migration to gold?
Scarlett Foo
Blake Quinn
Relative size of Treasury market means rotation into gold wouldn't noticeably impact Treasury yields, but could be bigger driver for gold.