• speaker1
    There's a lot of bubble stuff going on. I have a bubble indicator. which is a composite of things that it takes it too long to explain. And the bubble indicators relatively high. It has to do not only with the price it has to do with who owns it, how the financing is taking place in so on. And it's a relatively high.
  • drug level of bubble. on. but bubbles don't pop. really until they are put.
    speaker2
  • speaker1
    by tightness of monetary. policy and so on. We're going to be more likely to eas rates than to tighten rates. and so you have this two-part economy. The easing of the rates is because most of the economy is elements of weakening. If you're looking at a lot of the economy, you see a weakening in that kind of economy. At the same time, there's this bubble going on. in developing. So you are monetary policy for... both is not going to work because of that element of divergence. So I think it's probably going to produce.
  • more of a bubble.
    speaker2
  • speaker1
    I would think it's probably, you know, something like maybe 98, 99.
  • 19
    speaker2
  • speaker1
    27 28 and so on.
  • before the crash. Yeah, but even the issue of money and wealth. you know you can
    speaker2
  • speaker1
    It's not always money. you start a unicorn. So what happens is maybe for example you raise $100 million, but you value it at a billion. Now everybody's uh, I'm a billionaire and it's worth a billion dollars. but yet actually nobody have a paid of billion dollars for it and so on. And then that becomes its own money. So this dynamic is interesting. Then there are things of course about AI which are interesting, you know, in terms of how... the length of time the GPUs last and then data centers. and what the new GPOs GPOs use are going to be compared with the others and how quickly their root or a worthless. So there's a lot of risk. We certainly must say... that whether or not it's a bubble and when that bubble is going to burst, maybe we don't know. Exactly. But what we can say is there's a lot of risk.
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