Asks how the war will affect the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections, given it complicates both inflation and growth.
Romaine Bostick
Eric Rosengren
The war makes it much more difficult to determine both sides of the mandate. People concerned about inflation will be more concerned; those worried about the labor market will see an oil shock and other disruptions causing a potential unwanted slowdown.
Asks how the Fed discusses emerging issues like AI layoffs that aren't yet in official data.
Romaine Bostick
Eric Rosengren
Staff forecasts incorporate assumptions about job losses from disruptions like AI. It only becomes more substantive when other types of organizations start using AI to be more productive, which will take longer.
Asks how the Fed can battle both inflation impacts and the ongoing war.
Bailey
Eric Rosengren
You can't battle both. The solution to weak economy/high unemployment is lower rates; for high inflation it's higher rates. The committee has to pick which part of the mandate is most likely problematic.
Asks about the significance of Powell's messaging given potential succession issues.
Bailey
Eric Rosengren
It's a bad time for Fed succession. There's uncertainty about Kevin Warsh's approval and whether Powell will step down as Governor. Powell wants to leave a committee independent from the administration.