Stagflation risk depends on how long conflict lasts and how long oil/gas futures remain at elevated levels before feeding into real economy inflation and growth.

Divergence between ECB and Fed is realistic. Fed forecast to cut twice this year; ECB at neutral but concerned if futures curves realized could see inflation 3-3.5%, with expectations at high end of tolerable.

Direct impact on growth limited (maybe 0.1-0.2% off GDP vs higher inflation). Real concern is if conflict depresses confidence, weakening domestic demand further.

Governments have playbook from 2022 and will support markets, likely at EU level with joint issuance.