Base case very short war (1-2 weeks). Price action in oil/gas and bond market forced Trump's hand to look for off-ramp. Will declare victory in 5-6 days on: prevented nukes, decimated ballistic missiles, kept Strait open.

Once off-ramp reached, Israel will pivot to finish job in Lebanon, possibly invade. Regime change was never US objective, it was Israel's; Trump moved goalposts.

Strait of Hormuz: US will 'take it over', provide insurance backstop, divert Navy ships for escorting starting weekend. Not completely out of woods; volatility continues.

Three inflection points for off-ramp: oil above $100 for a week, 10-year yield at 4.5%, or 30-40 US casualties. Oil hit one trigger. White House laser-focused on gasoline prices affecting households.

If war protracted, US will hit Iran harder militarily; US won't get bogged down. Iran will lose as up against two most powerful militaries.