Traffic is minimal. Weekend saw confusion: initial optimism on Friday, increased traffic Saturday, then Iran reimposed halt after US said it wouldn't allow Iranian ships. Vessels turned back. Now, US seized a ship and market awaits Iran's response.

Market is hoping for breakthrough in talks, as oil prices not fully recovering Friday's losses indicates some optimism.

Three key things: 1) Iran's response. 2) Will talks happen? Is VP Vance going back to Islamabad? 3) If Iran responds, will it just tighten Hormuz or attack infrastructure?

If Iran just tightens the strait, it maintains current bad situation but doesn't add a bullish narrative to push oil above $100. If they attack infrastructure (Saudi, Iraq), prices could rise back to $110 because repairs take weeks/months/years. Market is watching for that.