The uncertainty we've talked about is key. We've been relying heavily on a consumer that has faced significant price shocks from the pandemic, tariffs, and job market shifts. Now we've added a new gasoline price shock at the pump, which creates heightened risk around consumer spending and growth.

The K-shaped economy will come to the fore. We've been relying on consumers who can power through, but you can only stress weaker household balance sheets so much. There is a breaking point. The Fed will have to focus on how consumers are positioned to handle additional price pressure.

The Fed has been focusing on labor market weakness and inflation risk even before this oil price shock. They've allowed inflation to extend out, putting them in a difficult position on policy risk. Whether they still think they're well-balanced coming into the March meeting is something to listen for.

It's different for the US Fed, but this environment will stay their hand on suggesting rate cuts and put them in pause mode. It reminds them the inflation target has to be credible, even though their tools are in conflict with a job market showing weakness and inflation showing upward pressure.

I consider it stable when looking at unemployment rate, but it masks moving parts underneath. We're seeing impact of immigration policy hits and uncertainty where businesses hire for confident positions but not moving hard and fast. It's a tentative labor market despite low unemployment.