My term expires but I'll stay until Kevin Warsh is confirmed. I have no idea how long that will take.

I dissented for 25bps because we've already cut 75bps since I joined, so we're less far from neutral. We can proceed at a slower pace of a quarter-point per meeting. The labor market data came in a little better, but one data point doesn't change the cooling trend. I still have concerns.

I disagree. The unemployment rate is not the total information. There is slack in the labor market: it takes longer to find jobs, pockets of weakness among younger folks, increased part-time work. On inflation, almost all the overage is due to quirks of measurement. Portfolio management services pick up stock market prices (AI pushing stocks adds 36bps vs normal 6bps). Housing inflation picks up 2022-2023 rents, not 2026-2027. Correcting for these, market-based core ex-housing inflation is running 2.2%. We don't have material inflation from supply-demand imbalances. We should not ask people to give up jobs due to measurement quirks.

There are conversations, but I focus on the overall macro economy. Weakness in segments can be leading indicators for the overall labor market.

Warsh has a long career as an insightful thinker on monetary policy. He's a fantastic pick with enormous credibility and gravitas. I can't answer what specific policies he'll support.

Yes, he's been there before, knows how the place operates, and has the respect needed. People want him to succeed.

The president has never asked me to do anything specific. He tells his views to the whole world. You fight perception by taking policy actions consistent with the data. I've laid out a case that inflation measures relevant for monetary policy show no material overheating. Markets respond to whether policy is appropriate, not the motives behind it.

It is a good idea to shrink the balance sheet, but we need regulatory reform first. How it affects long rates depends on how you shrink it (roll-off vs selling). At the end of the day, the overall stance of policy combines short rates and balance sheet. If you're not at the zero lower bound, you can offset balance sheet tightening by reducing the short rate.