Says the situation has worsened, calling it 'molecular contagion.' Highlights shortages spreading from Singapore to Rotterdam, Thailand, Philippines, New Zealand, Australia, indicating it's now intercontinental. Emphasizes there's no price spread, no spare barrels, no policy fix—it's just physics. Stresses these are physical supply chains where financialization and money printing don't apply: 'You can't print molecules.'

States the paper markets have entirely disconnected from physical markets. Provides specifics: crude on the other side of the Strait spiked to $173/bbl yesterday; crude delivered in Asia (Dubai/Oman blend) trades around $130-170/bbl; product prices are spiraling above $200/bbl. The disconnect is between paper markets (~$100) and physical markets showing a very different environment.

Dismisses a mysterious 11 million barrel seller as not enough to change the dynamic. Argues the bigger factor was Urals (Russian) crude rallying $65-70/bbl after sanctions were lifted, closing the gap with WTI/Brent (the high-cost barrels). Now that gap is closed, there are no more spare barrels, and the rest of the complex is likely to start to rally. Reiterates this is an enormous supply shock almost equal to the COVID demand shock. Concludes: 'So I think you're at $100 a barrel. This thing's mispriced.'