Asks about the outlook for 2026 and whether the recent optimism will continue.
Joumanna Bercetche
Alexandra Tabazzi
States that many factors from 2025 will not repeat in 2026, setting the backdrop for their scenario.
Asks where growth catalysts will come from.
Joumanna Bercetche
Alexandra Tabazzi
Points to fiscal stimulus in Japan, the US, and a 500 billion euro investment in Germany as key drivers.
Asks if fiscal stimulus could lead to a resurgence of inflation, especially with potential Fed dovishness.
Joumanna Bercetche
Alexandra Tabazzi
Confirms inflation around 2.9% is a key risk, especially if the Fed cuts rates while inflation remains sticky.
Asks how to position for that risk.
Joumanna Bercetche
Alexandra Tabazzi
Advises being careful on bonds, short duration, and looking at non-US bond markets. The US long end may be under pressure.
Asks if the DOJ subpoena of the Fed affects appetite for US assets.
Joumanna Bercetche
Alexandra Tabazzi
Says dovish monetary policy favors US assets, but the US dollar is the victim, as shown by its 10% decline last year which boosted returns for US investors overseas.
Asks which currencies to buy if the dollar weakness continues.
Joumanna Bercetche
Alexandra Tabazzi
Suggests emerging market currencies and the yen, citing attractive yields and companies with better valuations than the US.
Asks if gold and silver will continue to perform as in 2025.
Joumanna Bercetche
Alexandra Tabazzi
Says the playbook is similar, but currency is central. They center 70% of client assets in domestic currency. Assets are doing well except bonds due to inflation risk.
Asks how to factor geopolitics into portfolio construction.
Joumanna Bercetche
Alexandra Tabazzi
States geopolitics may have a lasting impact if it leads to higher oil prices. Advises wide diversification and optionality, which today is displayed by precious metals.
Asks about excitement around the AI theme versus 2025.
Joumanna Bercetche
Alexandra Tabazzi
Says people have questions as only two of the 'Mag 7' outperformed the S&P 500 last year. The key is whether AI companies can monetize their infrastructure to pay down debt raised in 2025.