Asks about the strong jobs report and whether it changes the outlook for Fed rate cuts.
Joumanna Bercetche
Patrick Armstrong
The jobs report doesn't change opinions much; it will come down to Fed Chair Warsh. Trump nominated him with the promise of rate cuts.
Asks about the feasibility of Quantitative Tightening (QT) alongside rate cuts given high US debt levels.
Joumanna Bercetche
Patrick Armstrong
Expects QT alongside rate cuts. Outright cuts with no QT would be extremely dovish and inappropriate given inflation and low unemployment.
Asks if Asian equity outperformance, trading at a discount to the US, will continue.
Joumanna Bercetche
Patrick Armstrong
Is 17% underweight the US. Added Samsung (trades at 8x earnings) due to incredible pricing power in the memory chip oligopoly.
Questions the narrative that hyperscalers' debt issuance for AI capex is a major concern.
Joumanna Bercetche
Patrick Armstrong
Distinguishes between Alphabet and Oracle. Short Oracle equity as it relies on debt-fueled capex to disrupt, while Alphabet has a strong incumbent client base.