Two scenarios: 1) Ceasefire now = 3-4 month normalization, some impact on growth and inflation. 2) Conflict restarts = 6-8 month impact before normalization, with very different effects.

For emerging markets, immediate focus should be on inflation due to supply disruption (oil, gas, fertilizer, chemicals).

World Bank crisis toolkit can quickly provide $20-25B liquidity. If conflict prolongs, could provide $50-60B. Support must be targeted, temporary, transparent - digital subsidies for poorest, not blanket subsidies.

Reconstruction is core business (Ukraine, Gaza). Richer Middle East countries don't need monetary help. Does not expect decline of dollar as reserve currency; other currencies lack full predictability and free float.

Bilateral deals in other currencies already happen but aren't large enough to challenge the dollar.

Focus is on job creation for 1.2B young people entering workforce. 'Small AI' at the edge (for farming, healthcare, education) can be a great enhancer for emerging markets, not just a threat.