After six straight days of ETF growth, gold and silver fell as bond yields pushed higher. Traders are looking beyond the Fed's high probability of a rate cut tomorrow for clues on monetary policy into 2026, leaning to two more cuts in 2026, down from three signaled a week ago.

Silver futures are up 1% overnight, but the market is dealing with aftershocks from a historic short squeeze. One-month leasing rates remain elevated around 6% despite record metal flows into the trading hub, putting pressure on other centers like Shanghai where inventories are near a decade low.

Gold futures are edging higher overnight. Key support levels are 4200, 4138, and the 50-day moving average at 4124.

Stock futures are flat to slightly higher. US stocks may be more volatile after tomorrow's Fed meeting due to diverging views among officials, with an implied move of about 0.7% in either direction.

Globally, central banks have started to tilt more hawkish. We're seeing stagflation—rising inflation and slower growth—which is pushing up yields. In the US, we are seeing a steepening in the yield curve.

The Russell 2000 has been performing well recently in small caps. Sentiment among US small businesses increased in November due to a surge in optimism around the sales outlook.

The 10-year Treasury yield sits at about 4.16%, with an overnight high of 4.18%. It's been almost a breakout on 10-year yields.

ETF flows: They bought gold and palladium but sold silver and platinum. Gold ETF holdings are at their highest level since October 24th, but the market has been consolidating and rangebound.

This is the calm before the storm. People are looking at trimming positions or evaluating the yield curve, which indicates accelerated growth into 2026. The question of two or three rate cuts and where the terminal rate lies is moving the needle.