Introduces topic: bond market performance in 2025, subsiding volatility, and whether it signals a bond rally.
Phil
Jim Bianco
Confirms bond rally and reduced volatility due to increased certainty, but warns this can change next year based on the new Fed chair and their mandate.
Questions whether it's too early to know where inflation ends up next year, given calm signaled by inflation swap rates.
Phil
Jim Bianco
Argues we are in a '3-ish% inflation world', not sub-2%. This will keep interest rates at current levels or maybe higher.
Asks about buying bond ETFs (AGG), the 10-year yield staying above 3%, and whether the secular bond bull market is over.
Phil
Jim Bianco
States the secular bull market in bonds ended in 2020. Expects the bond market to 'stall out a little bit in terms of yields going up' but notes there's still a coupon to be earned.
Asks about the potential for consumer rebound next year due to raises, better economy, and tax refunds, and its impact.
Phil
Jim Bianco
Agrees consumer could pick up, which circles back to interest rates: higher rates are appropriate and not to be feared if the economy is doing better with some inflation.