Asks for initial reaction to market response to US/Israel attack on Iran, noting Russell is down.
speaker1
Brian Jacobson
Market had time to digest. Oil up, copper down. This is an inflation and growth jolt - a punch, not a knockout. 10-year Treasury yield moving higher due to short-term inflation expectations and deficit spending for defense.
Brian Jacobson
Going forward, further pressure on AI trade. Data center buildout already under pressure from funding costs; now energy costs likely up too.
Asks about sensitivity of global oil market and broader long-term inflationary impact.
speaker1
Brian Jacobson
Consumer inflation expectations driven by gas prices, which are likely to rise. Fed focuses on expectations, may need to sound more hawkish.
Asks if OPEC+ may involve itself in a supply shock.
speaker1
Brian Jacobson
OPEC+ spare capacity is weak compared to Iran's output. Saudi, Qatar, UAE lack spare capacity to fill void.
Notes Bitcoin sold off while gold/oil moved higher. Asks why Bitcoin not acting as safe haven/digital gold.
speaker1
Brian Jacobson
Highlights gold as safe haven; Bitcoin is not. Government can cut internet access, preventing access to Bitcoin wallets.
Asks if defense stock rally and geopolitical risks are already priced in.
speaker1
Brian Jacobson
Longer term, yes, priced in. Seeing 4-5% pop in Lockheed, RTX, but not big move expected. High expectations already existed for defense spending.
Final question: Is this a path-altering event or just another bout of market volatility?
speaker1
Brian Jacobson
Views it as a bout of market volatility. Nothing good typically happens with VIX above 21. Expects sporadic volatility, hopes market refocuses on fundamentals in a week.