Was hopeful it wouldn't be, but markets responded well initially, then tariffs went from 10% to 15%. The word 'embargo' will come up, creating pressure. Markets would have been relieved to get past the tariff issue, but it's front and center again.

There will be confusion. A lot of products have already been ordered and paid for. The Iran situation could affect oil prices. Believes we were heading in a good direction on inflation and affordability, but Friday's numbers don't support that. Thinks inflation is the last story to focus on; need to focus on jobs and economic growth.

There's a long time until April. The ruling suggested he could use an embargo. Given he likes maximum pressure, expects more noise as he tries to clamp down on China. This 10% or 15% is not done, which makes him nervous for markets.

Has no idea, but doesn't think it stops the confusion. There's no clarity on how tariff refund claims will be paid. A lot is happening on the fly and will be challenged in courts. The administration was given leeway on embargoes, which is weird. Expects them to do things to put the clamp back on China and maybe India, which will be bad for markets.

Expects Iran maximum pressure to continue, doesn't see an attack for another week. Even if an attack happens, it will be small to keep them negotiating. Mexico is interesting; potential for Trump to work with Sheinbaum to rid cartels, which could be a first step but scary in the short term.

Expects strong earnings, but questions if that's enough. What happens to chip sales in the Middle East and China? A lot is back up in the air. Expects caution, markets to tread down a bit. Bitcoin is also down. It's a messy market. Sticking to what's working: rotation into physical asset companies with lower margins that benefit from AI. Wants to own the rest of the world vs. US, but would sell China on the pop due to more nastiness to come.

Thinks some of that will come back into play. Longer-term dollar weakness is there, but it questions investment coming into the country. Everything is up in the air. Doesn't think this week brings clarity; it brings more noise and cage rattling, which markets won't like.

Refunds will take a long time, be selective, and there will be pressure not to claim. Treasuries should be at 4% on the 10-year. Has been bullish since 4.25%, and at 4.05-4.06% is a little more indifferent. Thinks there's more room to lower yields, but limited on how much of a safe haven it can be at current yields given the inflation story and all the uncertainty (tariffs, embargoes).

Ties back to AI and jobs. Uncertainty is not good for hiring, especially when companies think they can squeeze productivity from AI to avoid hiring. This is detrimental to jobs. Believes we will get three cuts by September; the market isn't pricing cuts fast enough. 50/50 Powell delivers a cut because of jobs. All this uncertainty adds to jobs uncertainty and lack of hiring. His big fear is we are too comfortable with the job situation.