Introduces Fishman's thesis: Iran used America's economic warfare playbook by closing the Strait of Hormuz.
Tim Stenovic
Edward Fishman
We are in a new age of economic warfare where choke points (dollar, rare earths, geographic straits) give countries power to disrupt the global economy.
Iran, a medium-sized power, showed it can hold the world economy hostage cheaply with drones.
Edward Fishman
By closing the strait, Iran secured sanctions relief surpassing the 2015 deal, including direct oil sales to the US and use of its financial system.
This mirrors China's rare earth embargo lesson: retaliating against the US economy can extract more concessions than diplomacy.
Asks if past presidents avoided war with Iran due to knowledge of its economic power over the strait.
Carol Maser
Edward Fishman
Yes. Past administrations sought to curtail Iran's nuclear program without war because they knew it could close the strait, though they expected it via mines (suicidal).
Iran's innovation was asymmetrical closure via targeted attacks, changing shipping risk calculus without shutting in its own oil.
Asks if US/Israel can exit with Iran stopping nuclear enrichment.
Carol Maser
Edward Fishman
No. Iran now controls the strait, institutionalizing it, charging up to $2M per ship, generating ~$100B/year revenue. They won't give this up.
The US faces a choice: cut a bad deal or escalate militarily. The new IRGC leadership actively wants nuclear weapons.
Edward Fishman
The new status quo is so advantageous for Iran it might incentivize more US/Israel attacks. He is 'not resting easy' that the war is over.
Asks about the next potential big choke point.
Tim Stenovic
Edward Fishman
Clean energy technology (EVs, batteries, solar panels), which China controls.
The war will push US allies to double down on clean energy, increasing dependence on China.