Asks about impact of Iran war on European economy and inflation forecasts.
Oliver Crook
Olli Rehn
Main impact is on security, but has economic ramifications. Likely dampening effect on demand (experience from previous shocks).
Asks if shock is analogous to Russia-Ukraine war, what to look at.
Oliver Crook
Olli Rehn
Must study history: energy shocks of 1970s, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, COVID-19. So far, surge in gas/oil prices less dramatic than Russia's invasion.
Market prices 40% chance of December ECB hike. Asks if rate hikes are back on table.
Oliver Crook
Olli Rehn
Advice: keep a cool head, maintain steady hand, do not make hasty conclusions.
Asks about euro weakening due to geopolitical issues, if euro tethered to energy prices.
Oliver Crook
Olli Rehn
Euro move does not tell too much about European economic fundamentals.