Asks about expectations for tomorrow's jobs report.
Scott
Torsten Slok
Expects job growth of 98,000 vs consensus 70,000, viewing it as the first clean reading after bumpy months affected by government shutdown.
Suggests strong data would underscore that a Fed cut this month is unlikely.
Scott
Torsten Slok
Agrees a January cut is very unlikely, citing fading trade war headwinds and building economic tailwinds.
Notes confusion that Slok's outlook appears more stagflationary based on notes, but his current description doesn't match that.
Scott
Torsten Slok
Clarifies the key issue is entering the year with inflation near 3%. As labor market weakness fades, the risk shifts from stagflation to overheating.
Expresses surprise that Slok still cites a 30% recession probability for 2026 given his optimistic description.
Scott
Torsten Slok
Clarifies the 30% is the consensus/market expectation; Apollo's own recession probability is closer to 10%.