Markets have been detached from reality for a long time. Oil volatility is extreme despite 20M barrels/day offline, showing no correlation to ground reality.

A generation grew up on meme stocks and influencer marketing, believing prices always rise. Current volatility is a tremor before a major earthquake; this is not sustainable.

Criminal indictment of Powell suggests capture of Fed independence, possibly leading to a dovish shift or a backfire where Fed asserts independence by not lowering rates.

Not convinced gold/silver are safer. Shift from fiat to gold/crypto reflects low trust, but the guy with the biggest military takes what he wants. US could recapitalize via military budget.

Metals aren't terribly productive. World moving to material security (non-yielding) vs. high-trust society with yielding assets. Central banks holding $4T gold signals cold war era, self-preservation, which is inflationary.

Don't take allocation guidance from central banks. Volatility creates pricing errors. Find price-value dislocations in productive assets with margin of safety via financial statements.

Always be active. 75% volume algorithmic causes 20% daily swings. Buy American companies fundamental to society, tangible assets at major discount, no fundamental problem, usually a misunderstanding amplified by sell-side.

Citadel's investors lose, management gets paid. Passive index did better than most active managers historically. Private credit/equity assign own values, leading to gating unfair to capital owners.

Cockroach effect reminiscent of credit bubbles. Leverage, lack of transparency, investors don't know what they own, preferential treatment, liquidations leave lower quality assets. We're starting to see who's swimming naked.

Tectonic shifts in commercial real estate. Housing has complete lack of liquidity, lowest homes under contract on record. ~$10T market value at beginning of potential spread.

Never the guys at the top. Retail investors are Plato's slaves in cave looking at shadows. Fee collectors always do fine; risk socialized, profits privatized.

Golden age of fraud. SEC low enforcement. Insider trading admitted in court, SEC lawyers didn't bat an eye. Complete information asymmetry, collusion, illegal activity rampant.

Be a steward, not passive. You own the company; management works for you. Call IR, visit. If management arrogant, problem with culture.

See yourself as steward for good beyond self, not inwardly self-directed wealth pursuit. Passive is euphemism for lazy. Get-rich-quick mindset leads to problems.

Adobe: huge pricing error, market wrong that AI does away with traditional SaaS, remarkable business/earnings. Harley-Davidson: tangible assets ~70 cents on dollar, brand loyalty, 16% yield via dividend+buyback. General Mills: consistent, pays dividend 70+ years, people buy Cheerios even in war.

AI space has circular/round-trip transactions, financial engineering, house of cards. Defense names living off government largesse, blood on hands. Avoid implantable tech/blockchain body control grid surveillance state – immoral, will self-destruct.

No allocation. Understand shift due to low trust, but not good for society. Metals not very productive assets. Warned silver crash Jan 29 (biggest crash in history). Margin of safety gone after 70% gold, 140% silver run-up.