Questions reliability of recent inflation data and asks how investors should position themselves given skepticism about the report.
Speaker1
Rebecca Patterson
Agrees flawed data is problematic; expects payback with higher inflation in January report; sees disinflationary trend but questions speed of decline.
Draws parallel to 1990s internet boom when Fed raised rates despite productivity gains, asks whether Fed should cut or raise rates now.
Speaker2
Rebecca Patterson
Fed won't guess productivity impact; with fiscal tailwinds, monetary support, deregulation, and potential trade clarity, sees robust economy making significant Fed cuts unnecessary.
Rebecca Patterson
Expects only 1-2 modest rate cuts unless labor market softens; key indicator is small business hiring via NFIB survey.
Rebecca Patterson
Small business hiring stabilization would be incredibly bullish sign for market upside surprises next year.