We are in a post-COVID economy characterized by faster growth, higher inflation, and higher interest rates. It's different, not worse. The Fed should not cut rates. Expect 4% cash, 5% bonds, 6% stock returns over the next several years.

Big market rotation away from software/tech towards value, small cap, and international stocks, driven by AI collapsing the cost of software.

Immigration is the defining political issue in the developed world, driving a shift to right-wing governments in Europe (e.g., potential ECB chair change).

Markets will treat potential Iran regime change poorly initially due to risk of disruption in oil markets.

Bearish on China due to demographic collapse from one-child policy, ghost cities creating a banking crisis, and an authoritarian government incapable of the creative destruction needed to fix these problems.

Bullish on Japan as it emerges from a generation of stagnation, with growth, inflation, rising rates, and a soaring stock market.

The unwinding of the Yen carry trade (borrow at zero, invest in higher-yielding currencies like Mexican pesos) is a signal Japan's old era is over.

The dollar could continue to fall, but narratives about the 'end of the dollar' or 'end of American exceptionalism' are overblown, driven by Europeans wanting to see the US fail.

The state of the labor market is misunderstood; very low population growth means the breakeven job creation number is near zero, so current job gains are appropriate, not weak.