For the coming months, unless something changes quite dramatically, we're not likely to see any change in monetary policy.

Great deal of uncertainty about the Middle East. Outcomes ranging from bombing infrastructure to pulling out in weeks are very different for the economy and inflation.

The Fed's main concern is going to be focused on inflation. They're going to need more than one or two reports to be convinced this is a shock they can allow to just pass through.

Even if oil prices came down, they won't return to pre-shock levels. Uncertainty about the Strait of Hormuz remaining open creates a risk premium.

As long as inflation is running as high as it is right now, it'll be difficult for any chair to significantly reduce interest rates.

Core PCE was around 3% before the oil shock, and we've been well above the 2% target for 5 years.

A Fed rate hike is pretty unlikely. They're going to be concerned about whether the oil shock also has an impact on employment over time.