• Traders pricing third rate cut by December. Does that sound appropriate?
    Scarlet Fu
  • Alexander Wolf
    No, we wouldn't expect three; still in line with one. January data noisy with seasonality; jobs show underlying strength, points to needing less cuts. Today's action may be overreaction to one month.
  • Seasonal pattern in jobs—discounted already?
    Scarlet Fu
  • Alexander Wolf
    Jobs data skewed to healthcare; seasonality there, revisions possible. January data gets lot of seasonality, hard to make big judgment.
  • Call this 'buy more world' rather than sell America?
    Scarlet Fu
  • Alexander Wolf
    Not seeing outflows from US, but pickup into ex-US flows to Europe, Japan, EM. Dollar fundamentals (rate differentials) point to firmer dollar, but recently disconnected after Liberation Day; question is whether shift in global allocation persists or returns to fundamentals (rangebound to firmer).
  • What do you think about China telling banks not to load up on Treasuries?
    Scarlet Fu
  • Alexander Wolf
    Official SAFE holdings declining, but state bank holdings steady/increasing. Haven't shied away from Treasuries as much as headlines suggest.
  • Do you look at technical factors?
    Scarlet Fu
  • Alexander Wolf
    Focus more on fundamentals, underlying data, flow and positioning data, not technicals/moving averages—too short-term.
  • Market underpricing inflation risk from tariffs?
    Scarlet Fu
  • Alexander Wolf
    No, we don't think so. Tariff pass-through different vs 2017-18; absorbed across channel (exporters, corporate margins). Seen most categories pass through by year-end; some delay but won't upset inflation view overall.
  • Worry about data integrity from BLS cutbacks?
    Scarlet Fu
  • Alexander Wolf
    Not something we spend lot of time worrying about, but sheer cutbacks in jobs numbers in government hard to parse.
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